These Critical Races May Hold The Key to Democratic Senate Majority

While much of the early speculation and conversation around the upcoming midterm elections has centered on whether Democrats can reclaim the House of Representatives, a quieter but increasingly plausible scenario is emerging: a shift in control of the U.S. Senate.

Recent polling trends, including declining approval ratings for Trump, have opened the door to a potential Democratic path to a Senate majority. Political analysts, including SU4W PAC consultant Bighorn Company, have identified a handful of key races that could determine the outcome.

For Democrats to take control, they would need to:

  • Flip at least 4 Republican-held seats
  • Win 2 of the 4 open Republican seats (Michigan, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina)
  • Hold Georgia where Senator Jon Ossoff is up for reelection

It is a challenging map, but not out of reach. Voter frustration over rising living costs, persistent inflation, immigration policies, and foreign policy decisions, including the Iran conflict and its economic ripple effects, has created a more competitive environment. Meanwhile, Republicans are preparing to defend their 53 to 47 majority, already signaling major investments in key battlegrounds including Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.

With most of these states politically divided, none of these races are guaranteed wins. However, several stand out as especially competitive.

Promising Democratic Opportunities For Success

Maine | Primary: June 9

Democrats are once again targeting longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins. This time, early polling suggests a real opening.  The decision on April 25 by Gov. Janet Mills to end her Senate bid can only improve their chances.  Both she and the other Democratic candidate, oyster farmer Graham Platner, were ahead of Collins in recent polling in this closely watched race. The issue now is whether Platner, running for his first time, can maintain his momentum against the long history of Collins bringing substantial federal dollars into the state, and the large funding national Republicans are certain to provide.

Still, Maine’s recent Democratic lean, including its support for Harris in 2024, makes it one of the Democrats’ best chances. 

Alaska | Primary: August 18

Mary Peltola, former holder of Alaska’s at-large House seat, is emerging as a formidable contender against Senator Dan Sullivan. A member of the Yup’ik tribe, Peltola has strong rural support and narrowly lost reelection in 2024. Recent polling shows her leading Sullivan by five points.  The limited number of undecided voters in the state increases the reliability of this polling.

North Carolina | Primary: May 12

Roy Cooper, the state’s Democratic governor, enters this race leading the polls, with numbers from April 29 giving him a 9-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley. High Point University polling found his lead at 50% to 42%, with 6% undecided. Even Whatley’s term as national Republican chair seems unlikely to overcome his never having held elected office. And in this climate, Trump’s endorsement may not help him.

Cooper’s strong track record, including a double-digit statewide win in 2024 despite Trump carrying the state, makes this one of the Democrats’ best pickup opportunities. Both parties are expected to invest heavily.

Toss-Up Races

New Hampshire | Primary: September 8

Had former Gov. Chris Sununu not reversed his decision against running and thrown his hat into the ring, this race would have been a strong likely Democrat win.  His name recognition and fundraising strength make Sununu a serious contender. With Trump’s strong endorsement, Sununu’s success may also show where Trump stands with voters.

Still, Democrat Chris Pappas brings his own advantages: four terms in Congress, strong fundraising, and broad appeal, particularly among younger voters. Early polling gives him a slight edge.

Ohio | Primary: May 5

Sherrod Brown’s previous loss was close, (by 3.6 points) and he remains a well-known figure in a deeply divided state. Early polling shows him competitive against Republican Jon Husted. Economic concerns, especially inflation and rising gasoline and other costs, could play a decisive role here, making Ohio one of the cycle’s most unpredictable races.

Nebraska | Primary: May 12

In a deeply Republican state, independent candidate Dan Osborn is taking an unusual path, and it may be working. Running outside the Democratic label, he is polling within one point of Republican Pete Ricketts. The Cook political report has shifted the race to favoring him.

A farmer with a strong pro-labor background, Osborn has built a coalition that cuts across traditional party lines.

Long Shot Opportunities

Texas | Runoff: May 12

Democrat James Tallarico could face either incumbent John Cornyn or state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump endorsee Paxton has also faced accusations of securities law violations. If Paxton wins the Republican nomination, analysts suggest his vulnerabilities, combined with broader political headwinds, could create an opening.

While still a long shot, this race is worth watching.

Iowa | Primary: June 2

With Senator Joni Ernst retiring, Iowa becomes a rare open-seat Democraticopportunity. Though the state has trended Republican, economic pressures, especially from unpredictable tariffs impacting many farmers, could shift voter sentiment. Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls are competing for the nomination in what could become a competitive race, likely opposing Rep. Allison Hinson.

Florida | Primary: August 18

Florida has leaned Republican in recent years, but strong Democratic performances in recent special elections suggest potential volatility. With well-known Democratic whistleblower Alex Vindman in the race against incumbent De Santis appointee Ashley Moody, and an anti-Trump sentiment prevalent even in many southern states, some observers see a possible opening for the Democrats.

Democratic Vulnerability

Georgia | Primary: May 19

Senator Jon Ossoff is in a seat is critical to any Democratic path to the Senate majority. While Georgia has leaned Republican historically, polling recently reviewed by the New York Times found Ossoff  ahead by four to nine points.

A crowded Republican field could split opposition support, improving his chances, but this remains one of the most closely watched races of the cycle.

The bottom line?

If Democrats secure expected wins in places like Alaska and Maine, they would likely need just 2 more victories, such as in Ohio or New Hampshire, while holding Georgia, to take control of the Senate. It is a narrow path with little room for error. But with shifting political dynamics and a volatile electorate, the next 6 months will tell whether that possibility becomes reality.

Written By Paul Merry, SU4W Board Member

Alaska’s Voice for Workers: Mary Peltola in Senate

Former representative Mary Peltola has consistently proven that “working-class values” are more than just a campaign slogan. They are a way of life.

As she officially launches her 2026 bid for the U.S. Senate, her campaign is gaining momentum as a champion for the people who keep Alaska running. The Stand Up For Workers PAC is considering supporting Peltola’s candidacy because she has remained steadfastly focused on “Fish, Family, and Freedom,” to prioritize local livelihoods.

Peltola has described herself as “the pro-fish, pro-choice representative for Alaska in Congress.” She was the first Alaska Native to ever serve in Congress, and was the first Alaska-born representative to serve that state in the U.S. House.

Peltola’s record in the House is a testament to her “worker-forward” approach. She famously stood her ground as one of only eight House Democrats to vote against a rail contract that lacked guaranteed paid sick days, choosing worker dignity over political expediency. Beyond the halls of Congress, she has been a driving force for Alaskans, securing over $2 billion in federal infrastructure funding and advocating for projects like the Willow Project, which is slated to create thousands of union-backed jobs. As a co-sponsor of the PRO Act, she has fought to dismantle barriers to collective bargaining, ensuring that laborers and tradespeople have a true seat at the table.

She describes herself as being “pro-fish” because, when she was growing up, with salmon fishing in the summers and dog mushing in the winters, Alaska was a place of abundance. She sees multi-national companies trawling Alaska’s waters and decimating its fish stocks. Grocery prices are rising, and the Trump administration is doing nothing to solve these problems.

The 2026 midterm elections will be a defining moment for the American worker, and we need to amplify leaders who refuse to compromise on labor rights and economic fairness. We invite you to join the fight and help us back champions like Mary Peltola, who understand the reality of Alaskan and American life.

Consider making a donation to the Stand Up For Workers PAC this month to help us provide the resources necessary to win tough races and elevate worker-focused candidates across the country.

Candidate Spotlight: Chris Pappas

Democrat Chris Pappas, a candidate for the U.S. Senate for the New Hampshire seat being vacated by Sen. Jean Shaheen, has had an impressive political career thus far.

He has kept to a moderate path on many issues, but his voting record on legislation supported by the Stand Up for Workers PAC and his near-100% rating by the AFL-CIO, along with his strong odds of success in the upcoming elections, make him an attractive candidate for the PAC.

The young Harvard College graduate was elected to the New Hampshire House of Representatives in 2002 at 22, the youngest person elected to that body, serving two terms before winning election as Hillsborough County treasurer, as which he served until 2010. He was elected to the New Hampshire Executive Council in 2012. He won re-election in 2014 and 2016, was first elected to Congress in 2019, and re-elected three times since. And, he is also the first openly gay representative elected by New Hampshire.

Before entering politics, Pappas helped manage a family-owned Manchester restaurant called the Puritan Backroom, a popular visiting spot for presidential candidates campaigning in the early-primary state. (His grandfather also invented chicken tenders at the Puritan in 1974.) He and his husband live in Manchester, the state’s largest city.

Pappas represents New Hampshire’s First District, which covers principally the eastern half of the state, but which doesn’t include many of the communities which line the state’s southern border with Massachusetts, where many liberal leaning tax refugees from that state are thought to live. Perhaps in part due to the fairly rural demographics of his district, Pappas has been careful to pursue a moderate course during his time thus far in the House. He was ranked the most bi-partisan Democrat in the House in 2023 by the Lugar Center. He has, unsurprisingly, a strong record on supporting gay rights, and actively advocated for restoring federal subsidies to make health insurance premiums affordable for many Americans, including many workers not receiving employment-related health insurance.

Most significantly for the PAC, Pappas has a 99% lifetime rating from the AFL- CIO. He has voted for, among other bills, Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, the Forced Arbitration Injustice Repeal Act, the Paycheck Fairness Act, the Protecting Older Workers Against Discrimination Act, and the Raise the Wage Act. Pappas has drawn arguably the greatest criticism for his support of the Laken Riley Act. This act, which arose from the killing in Georgia of a woman named Laken Riley by an undocumented immigrant, requires that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) agency detain certain non-citizen aliens without bail during their immigration proceedings. This detention requirement applies to any individual who “… is charged with, is arrested for, is convicted of, admits having committed, or admits committing acts which constitute the essential elements of any burglary, theft, larceny, shoplifting, or assault of a law enforcement officer … or any crime that results in death or serious bodily injury to another person.”

These requirements apply irrespective of whether there was any process, such as investigation or trial, involved. Many national civil rights organizations opposed the bill, including the Center for Constitutional Rights, the League of Women Voters, the NAACP Legal Defense, the Southern Poverty Law Center, and the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights.

Recently, Pappas has called for Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, to resign or to be impeached. He has stated that ICE is “out of control, violating due process, the public trust, and standards of law enforcement.” On January 22, 2026, two days before Alex Pretti was murdered in Minneapolis, he introduced a bill that would redirect almost $75 billion in federal funding away from ICE and to local law enforcement, supporting the hiring of 200,000 more law enforcement officers. Pappas is well ahead of all comers in fundraising in the Senate race, having raised $4,284,014 and holding $2,612,761 on hand. This compares with $33,218 raised and $18,329 on hand for his sole Democratic competitor in the September 8 primary, Karishma Manzur; and $968,538 raised and $802,763 on hand for the Republican Scott Brown. (These numbers are as of end of September 2025. Numbers were not available for the second Republican, John E. Sununu, who served in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2009.)

Pappas’ only primary challenger, Karishma Manzur, describes herself as a doctoral degree holding medical science researcher, science writer and community volunteer, who also sits on the New Hampshire Democratic Party Rules Committee. She has included her support for workers’ rights prominently in her campaign materials, and she has called for the abolition of ICE following the killing of two demonstrators by ICE agents in Minneapolis.

The most recent polling, by Granite State Polling, from January 19, 2026, which tested Pappas against Brown, showed Pappas with a ten-point lead, 52% to Brown’s 42%. Pappas led also in the other pairing against Sununu on the same date, whom he bested by 50% to 45%. Other polling, from December 2025, shows Pappas ahead of these two competing candidates by slightly narrower, but comparable, margins. Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in both of New Hampshire’s congressional districts in 2024. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate New Hampshire as “leaning Democratic” coming up to the fall elections.

Assuming he succeeds in the Democratic primary on September 8th, Pappas will be vying in the general against either carpetbagger Scott Brown, former Senator from Massachusetts and ambassador to New Zealand in Trump’s first term; or John Sununu, son of a successful former governor and himself a prior holder of a New Hampshire Senate seat. Brown’s populist positions, including one of the key votes that ended the United States ban on assault weapons, earned him the opprobrium of many Massachusetts progressives. His affecting of a barn coat and pickup truck, though, won him support from the (admittedly small) right leaning constituencies in Massachusetts, and will likely sell well to the more rural New Hampshire electorate. But, there is also ample anti-Massachusetts sentiment in the state to cost Brown votes.

Sununu may represent a more serious challenge to Pappas, with his strong name recognition and long family history of public service to the state as well as his prior holding of a Senate seat. In addition, Trump recently endorsed Sununu’s candidacy. Sununu’s fundraising success thus far, though, has not been demonstrated, and his campaign also appears to have generated limited buzz.

Pappas is regarded by commentators as the front-runner for the seat. Given his strong record of favoring workers’ rights, the retrograde views of his Trump-leaning opponent Brown (and the historically solid Republican Sununu), and given the importance of winning control of the Senate for Democrats, our PAC may decide to support his candidacy.

Written by Paul Merry, SU4W Board Member

Interested in supporting the PAC as we prepare for the upcoming election cycle? Learn more and donate here.

 

Candidate Spotlight: Sherrod Brown

Long before affordability powered Mikie Sherill, Abigail Spanberger and Zohran Momdani to election in November 2025, Sherrod Brown focused on working-class economic issues in the House and in the Senate.

He has been a strong supporter of organized labor, and Sherrod and his wife Connie proudly drive union-made Jeeps manufactured in Toledo, Ohio. After noting that his home zip code had the highest rate of housing foreclosures in the country, he said, “I want to devote the rest of my career to helping people have affordable, decent, clean, safe housing.”

Brown was elected to the U.S. House in 1992 in a district in northeast Ohio. He served in that seat until 2008, when he was first elected to the Senate. He was defeated in 2024, in a race in which crypto interests donated $40 million to his Republican challenger. Brown is again running for the Senate, in the seat vacated by Vice President Vance, a seat that has been filled by Sen. Jon Husted for the last year.

He voted for the Affordable Care Act in 2010, supported Medicare for All, sponsored legislation to make Medicare eligible to people at age 55, and was a leader in an effort to expand the child tax credit, an effort that temporarily cut the U.S. child poverty rate in half.

Brown supported the Employee Free Choice Act, which would have required certification of a labor union, without an election, if a majority of employees in the bargaining unit had signed authorization cards. He advocated for a higher minimum wage. In addition to this, he supported investing in infrastructure, supported small businesses and supported green energy initiatives.

When it comes to oppositions, he has opposed the outsourcing of American job by supporting tariffs and protectionist trade policies. He voted against ratification of the NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and successfully opposed ratification of the Central American Free Trade Agreement. During Trump’s first term, he supported renegotiation of NAFTA. However, Brown voted against ratification of its replacement because he felt that its worker protection provisions were insufficient.

He led an effort in 2008 to preempt future bank bailouts by breaking up “too-big- to-fail” banks by limiting the size of banks eligible for federal financial assistance. Brown fought against legislation that reduced the regulations on banks with more than $50 billion but less than $250 billion in assets, pointing out the Senate was engaged in “collective amnesia” by repealing rules designed to avoid future bank bailouts.

Brown supported legislation to more tightly regulate crypto, due to the lack of adequate consumer protections and the use of crypto by terrorist groups and international criminal interests. Fairshake, a pro-crypto industry PAC, spent more than $40 million in advertisements (which didn’t mention crypto) to defeat Brown in 2024.

Those same interests will probably spend similar amounts of money to elect Husted and to defeat Brown in 2026. Right now, Brown is ahead of Husted by 1% and is trailing Husted by 3% in two recent polls. Brown’s election chances will depend on whether Ohio voters’ opposition to Trump and their concerns about affordability are outweighed by out-of state interests’ spending to support Husted. In other words, Brown’s chances will be based on whether crypto spending – which has nothing to do with the issues that concern Ohioans – will control the election results.

Written By Barry Roseman, SU4W Board Member & Treasurer

Candidate Spotlight: Jon Ossoff

Senior U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia is one of the first senate candidates  the SU4W PAC supported and is currently being considered for support again as he runs for re-election. 

In his last election in 2020, Ossoff, along with junior Sen. Raphael Warnock, set new “firsts” for Georgia, as Ossoff was the first Jewish candidate, and Warnock the first African-American, to be elected to the U.S. Senate from the state.  Ossoff, whose race has been called the most expensive in U.S. history, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue in a January runoff election after no candidate won a majority in the general election.  Ossoff’s and Warnock’s victories gave Democrats control of the Senate. At thirty-eight years of age he is currently the youngest senator in office.

Ossoff graduated from Georgetown University‘s Walsh School of Foreign Service with a Bachelor of Science in culture and politics, and earned a Master of Science degree in international political economy from the London School of Economics in 2013. Elements of Ossoff’s background of interest to worker advocates include his serving as intern for civil rights leader and U.S. Representative John Lewis. From 2007 to 2012 he served as legislative assistant for foreign affairs and defense policy for U.S. representative Hank Johnson.

From 2013 to 2021, Ossoff was the managing director and chief executive officer of Insight: The World Investigates (TWI), a London-based investigative television production company that works with reporters to create documentaries about corruption in foreign countries. The firm produced BBC investigations about ISIS war crimes and death squads in East Africa. He invested a previously received inheritance of an unknown amount to the TWI venture.

Ossoff ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2017.  Though he lost, The New York Times reported that he “produced probably the strongest Democratic turnout in an off-year election in at least a decade“, “brought a surprising number of irregular young and nonwhite voters to the polls,” and nearly doubled youth turnout in the 6th district from the 2014 midterm election, in a district where Republicans far outnumber Democrats.

Ossoff won the support of our PAC by his pledge respecting federal judicial appointments, that if elected he would vote to approve only judicial nominees who have stated their openness to and support of the rights of workers; and by his avowals of commitment to endorsing and promoting legislation that broadens or strengthens worker rights.  Along with SU4W PAC’s endorsement, in the 2020 race he also won the endorsement of the Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund.

As senator, Ossoff has been active in a variety of areas, but pro-worker legislation has not appeared to be a major focus for him.  He initiated the Solar Energy Manufacturing for America Act, which was passed by the senate in 2022, and which held the promise of more manufacturing jobs.  It was incorporated into the Infrastructure and Jobs Act.  He also sought more control over the U.S. postmaster general in the wake of a mail service meltdown.  Earlier this year the Associated Press noted Ossoff’s bipartisan work with Republicans, advancing the interests of Georgia’s farmers and military bases.

Ossoff voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, and has supported legislation that significantly benefited workers along with others, including the Affordable Care Act and the Equality Act, which would prohibit discrimination on the basis of sex, gender identity, and sexual orientation.  He has also called for the repeal of “wasteful, anti-competitive special interest subsidies that make it hard for entrepreneurs to raise capital …  [and] create jobs … .”  He describes his support for the LGBTQ community as “unwavering” and supports comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship for immigrants not currently documented.

In 2022, he blocked a proposed titanium mine in the Okefenokee Swamp after the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service warned of severe potential damage to the wildlife refuge. The mine was proposed by Twin Pines Minerals LLC in 2018.

Alongside his votes supporting workers, however, Ossoff’s Senate record also appears to include at least one less-than-supportive item.  The United Farm Workers and the S.E.I.U. union report that he joined forces with a Republican, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina,  to introduce a bill delaying a five-percent wage increase for H-2A Visa workers for nine months. A March 2022 statement from Tillis announced that Ossoff had joined him in sponsoring the legislation to support farmers.  Ossoff, who the unions note also supported legislation raising the federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars, denies favoring wage cuts for farm workers and points out that he has been a champion for paid leave and for the right to join a union.  Agriculture represents more than five percent of  Georgia’s economy, so it may not be surprising that Ossoff joined in that bill, and it may be that this bipartisan step explains why in one recent poll of voters, Ossoff was supported by some twenty percent of Georgia Republicans.

In the final analysis, living in a democratic system of government calls for pragmatism and compromise.  While Ossoff may not prioritize workers’ rights as highly as advocates may wish, his record overall is almost certainly preferable to the Republican candidate (whoever that turns out to be) for the seat.

Written By Paul Merry, SU4W Board Member

Candidate Spotlight: Roy Cooper

It was March 29, 2016, less than one week after North Carolina’s then-governor, Pat McCrory, had signed HB 2 into law. That bill required transgender students and adults in public buildings to use restrooms corresponding to the gender assigned to them at birth. As North Carolina’s attorney general for eight years, Roy Cooper had defended dozens of other laws in the courts. But not this time.

Roy Cooper announced that he and his staff would not defend HB 2 because it was blatantly unconstitutional. That November, Cooper campaigned against Gov. McCrory and became governor of North Carolina. A little more than one year later, he signed a bill that repealed HB 2, even though that compromise bill fell short of a full repeal of the anti-LGBTQ restrictions contained in the 2016 legislation.

Roy Cooper served eight years as governor, retiring in 2024 because of the term limits on that position. As governor, he created hundreds of thousands of jobs for North Carolinians.  He got a bipartisan agreement to expand Medicaid in that state, and he enacted a plan to incentivize hospitals to relieve more than $4 billion of existing medical debt. He focused on improving public education, tackling the opioid crisis, revitalizing rural communities, and ensuring that North Carolinians have the training they need for higher-skill jobs.

Cooper has won every election in which he has run, as a state legislator, attorney general and governor. Now, he has announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in November 2026. If elected, he would replace Republican Thom Tillis and could help to flip control of the Senate to Democrats. That would ensure that the Senate would not confirm judges and U.S. Supreme Court justices nominated by President Trump.

Roy Cooper is currently leading in the polls against his probable opponent, Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper has begun running campaign advertisements that make a populist appeal: “The biggest corporations and the richest Americans have grabbed unimaginable wealth at your expense.”  This will be a hotly contested election.

The Stand Up for Workers PAC will likely endorse Gov. Cooper in his election campaign, as part of our efforts to regain control of both houses of Congress in 2026. If Democrats regain control of the Senate, we can block Trump’s efforts to put more loyalists on the federal bench, including on the Supreme Court. This race is central to our efforts to stop Trump’s war on American workers.

 

Written By Barry Roseman, Stand Up For Workers Board Member & Treasurer

Candidate Highlight: Aftyn Behn

Why is Aftyn Behn running for Congress? “I’m a pissed-off social worker in the South,” Tenn. State Representative Behn explained to CNN’s Audie Cornish.  “I think for me, it’s a moment where people are angry, I’m angry.  I’m upset that my constituents are losing their benefits.  I’m upset that people are struggling to afford the basic cost of living.” 

Representative Mark Green, who used to represent Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District, announced his retirement in late July.  The special election for that vacancy will be held on December 2, 2025.

Aftyn Behn is the Democratic nominee in that district.  She is a former social worker and healthcare organizer for the Tennessee Justice Center, as well as the lead organizer for Enough Is Enough TN, which advocated for removing a state representative who had sexually abused young girls, and a district organizer for Indivisible.

Behn was elected to the state legislature in 2023, with the endorsement of the Tennessee AFL-CIO.  She sponsored bipartisan legislation to reform the way that the state legislature handles workplace harassment and discrimination complaints, and she proposed abolishing the Tennessee sales tax on groceries.

Behn framed her primary campaign in terms of economic populism.  “The culture wars are a distraction from the real issue, which are economic issues.”  She added, “Cheaper groceries, affording rent, these are issues that really resonate with young folks. And I think if the Democratic Party can become a party of the economy, of economic populism, then they can rein in both independents and young people.”  

Behn won the Democratic primary for that seat in a four-way race.  Her general election opponent is Matt Van Epps, who has been endorsed by Trump.

State legislators decided in 2020 to “crack” Nashville’s former congressional district into three majority-Republican districts, since a majority of Nashville residents vote for Democrats.  TN-07, created because of that gerrymander, includes some heavily Democratic parts of Nashville, some affluent suburbs and exurbs, the city of Clarksville, and rural areas between the Kentucky and Alabama state lines.

If this were a normal political year, it would be difficult for any Democrat to win TN-07.  Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024.  Green won by 20 points that year.

But this is not a normal year.  Democrats overperformed their opponents in two special elections in Florida by 15 points this April.  Behn’s populist message, the impact of Trump’s economic bill on rural health care, and a failing economy for middle-income Americans mean that she has a realistic chance of winning.

In her acceptance speech, Behn said, “We are hungry for something real. We are tired of watching billionaires hoard power while families can’t afford groceries.  We’re tired of potholes, hospital closures, and politicians who cash checks instead of keeping promises. Tonight, Tennessee sent a message, and that message is: women can still fight, organizers can still win, and Democrats in the Deep South aren’t done yet.”

The Stand Up for Workers PAC has endorsed her candidacy in addition to the Tennessee AFL-CIO.  Her populist message will appeal to all voters in TN-07.  That is particularly true given the economic pain that Trump and congressional Republicans have imposed on the working class and rural Americans.  If Behn can win in heavily Republican counties in middle Tennessee, Democrats will be able to compete in almost every congressional district in 2026.

 

Written By Barry Roseman, Stand Up For Workers Board Member