Tag: Polls

These Critical Races May Hold The Key to Democratic Senate Majority

Posted on by Stand Up for Workers Action

While much of the early speculation and conversation around the upcoming midterm elections has centered on whether Democrats can reclaim the House of Representatives, a quieter but increasingly plausible scenario is emerging: a shift in control of the U.S. Senate.

Recent polling trends, including declining approval ratings for Trump, have opened the door to a potential Democratic path to a Senate majority. Political analysts, including SU4W PAC consultant Bighorn Company, have identified a handful of key races that could determine the outcome.

For Democrats to take control, they would need to:

  • Flip at least 4 Republican-held seats
  • Win 2 of the 4 open Republican seats (Michigan, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina)
  • Hold Georgia where Senator Jon Ossoff is up for reelection

It is a challenging map, but not out of reach. Voter frustration over rising living costs, persistent inflation, immigration policies, and foreign policy decisions, including the Iran conflict and its economic ripple effects, has created a more competitive environment. Meanwhile, Republicans are preparing to defend their 53 to 47 majority, already signaling major investments in key battlegrounds including Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.

With most of these states politically divided, none of these races are guaranteed wins. However, several stand out as especially competitive.

Promising Democratic Opportunities For Success

Maine | Primary: June 9

Democrats are once again targeting longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins. This time, early polling suggests a real opening.  The decision on April 25 by Gov. Janet Mills to end her Senate bid can only improve their chances.  Both she and the other Democratic candidate, oyster farmer Graham Platner, were ahead of Collins in recent polling in this closely watched race. The issue now is whether Platner, running for his first time, can maintain his momentum against the long history of Collins bringing substantial federal dollars into the state, and the large funding national Republicans are certain to provide.

Still, Maine’s recent Democratic lean, including its support for Harris in 2024, makes it one of the Democrats’ best chances. 

Alaska | Primary: August 18

Mary Peltola, former holder of Alaska’s at-large House seat, is emerging as a formidable contender against Senator Dan Sullivan. A member of the Yup’ik tribe, Peltola has strong rural support and narrowly lost reelection in 2024. Recent polling shows her leading Sullivan by five points.  The limited number of undecided voters in the state increases the reliability of this polling.

North Carolina | Primary: May 12

Roy Cooper, the state’s Democratic governor, enters this race leading the polls, with numbers from April 29 giving him a 9-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley. High Point University polling found his lead at 50% to 42%, with 6% undecided. Even Whatley’s term as national Republican chair seems unlikely to overcome his never having held elected office. And in this climate, Trump’s endorsement may not help him.

Cooper’s strong track record, including a double-digit statewide win in 2024 despite Trump carrying the state, makes this one of the Democrats’ best pickup opportunities. Both parties are expected to invest heavily.

Toss-Up Races

New Hampshire | Primary: September 8

Had former Gov. Chris Sununu not reversed his decision against running and thrown his hat into the ring, this race would have been a strong likely Democrat win.  His name recognition and fundraising strength make Sununu a serious contender. With Trump’s strong endorsement, Sununu’s success may also show where Trump stands with voters.

Still, Democrat Chris Pappas brings his own advantages: four terms in Congress, strong fundraising, and broad appeal, particularly among younger voters. Early polling gives him a slight edge.

Ohio | Primary: May 5

Sherrod Brown’s previous loss was close, (by 3.6 points) and he remains a well-known figure in a deeply divided state. Early polling shows him competitive against Republican Jon Husted. Economic concerns, especially inflation and rising gasoline and other costs, could play a decisive role here, making Ohio one of the cycle’s most unpredictable races.

Nebraska | Primary: May 12

In a deeply Republican state, independent candidate Dan Osborn is taking an unusual path, and it may be working. Running outside the Democratic label, he is polling within one point of Republican Pete Ricketts. The Cook political report has shifted the race to favoring him.

A farmer with a strong pro-labor background, Osborn has built a coalition that cuts across traditional party lines.

Long Shot Opportunities

Texas | Runoff: May 12

Democrat James Tallarico could face either incumbent John Cornyn or state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump endorsee Paxton has also faced accusations of securities law violations. If Paxton wins the Republican nomination, analysts suggest his vulnerabilities, combined with broader political headwinds, could create an opening.

While still a long shot, this race is worth watching.

Iowa | Primary: June 2

With Senator Joni Ernst retiring, Iowa becomes a rare open-seat Democraticopportunity. Though the state has trended Republican, economic pressures, especially from unpredictable tariffs impacting many farmers, could shift voter sentiment. Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls are competing for the nomination in what could become a competitive race, likely opposing Rep. Allison Hinson.

Florida | Primary: August 18

Florida has leaned Republican in recent years, but strong Democratic performances in recent special elections suggest potential volatility. With well-known Democratic whistleblower Alex Vindman in the race against incumbent De Santis appointee Ashley Moody, and an anti-Trump sentiment prevalent even in many southern states, some observers see a possible opening for the Democrats.

Democratic Vulnerability

Georgia | Primary: May 19

Senator Jon Ossoff is in a seat is critical to any Democratic path to the Senate majority. While Georgia has leaned Republican historically, polling recently reviewed by the New York Times found Ossoff  ahead by four to nine points.

A crowded Republican field could split opposition support, improving his chances, but this remains one of the most closely watched races of the cycle.

The bottom line?

If Democrats secure expected wins in places like Alaska and Maine, they would likely need just 2 more victories, such as in Ohio or New Hampshire, while holding Georgia, to take control of the Senate. It is a narrow path with little room for error. But with shifting political dynamics and a volatile electorate, the next 6 months will tell whether that possibility becomes reality.

Written By Paul Merry, SU4W Board Member

Trump’s War On Iran Will Add to American Workers’ Economic Woes

Posted on by Alayya Arrison

American workers, already whipsawed by the effects of Trump’s capricious tariffs and other uncertainties of the economy, are likely to be the group most adversely impacted by the war against Iran according to labor economists and other economic analysts. 

Such effects include:

1. Jobs, Hiring, and Economic Stability

While direct job losses are hard to predict, the indirect effects are clearer and concerning. If the conflict drags on, consumer spending may fall, businesses may slow hiring, and layoffs could follow.

A major disruption is already underway: the near shutdown of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for roughly 20% of global petroleum shipments. Oil prices jumped nearly 10% after the conflict began, raising costs across industries from shipping to manufacturing.

This threatens a fragile recovery in U.S. manufacturing. Rising input costs for energy, materials, and transportation are already surging at their fastest pace in years. As production becomes more expensive, companies may scale back operations, cut hours, or reduce their workforce.

Supply chain vulnerabilities extend beyond oil. For example, a prolonged closure of the Strait could choke off a significant portion of the world’s helium supply—critical for semiconductors, medical equipment like MRI machines, and defense technologies—putting additional jobs at risk.

At the same time, the growing reliance on digital infrastructure leaves businesses exposed to cyberattacks. Iran and its allies have historically used cyber warfare in response to military conflict, and disruptions could halt business operations, threatening jobs across sectors.

2. Rising Costs for Everyday Life

Workers will also feel the impact at home, especially through rising energy and food costs.

Gasoline and diesel prices are expected to climb, along with electricity costs driven by higher natural gas prices. These increases hit lower-income workers hardest, particularly those with long commutes, as more of their income is diverted to basic transportation.

Food prices (already a strain) could rise further. Higher fuel costs increase the price of transporting goods, while disruptions to fertilizer supplies (much of which originates from the Persian Gulf) could reduce agricultural output. The result: higher grocery bills and tighter household budgets.

3. Long-Term Outlook for Workers

Unlike past wars, this conflict may not produce a significant boost in employment. Advances in technology like drones and automation reduce the need for human labor even during wartime production.

History offers a cautionary note: labor shortages can sometimes strengthen workers’ bargaining power, but they can also accelerate automation, ultimately reducing jobs.

Meanwhile, financial markets are already reacting. Rising energy prices and uncertainty have triggered declines in major stock indexes. If the conflict continues, economists warn of a broader slowdown. Businesses may pull back on hiring or cut jobs altogether, raising the risk of a recession.

As one economist put it, without a clear exit strategy, the economic effects of this conflict could be long-lasting, leaving American workers to bear much of the burden.

 

Written By Paul Merry, SU4W Board Member

Cracks In MAGA’s Base Encourages Worker Advocates Preparing For Fall Elections

Posted on by Stand Up for Workers Action

As the new year begins, the seemingly unending series of missteps by the current White House, especially on the economy, is feeding a growing number of defections of Trump loyalists away from their unbreakable bond to the chief executive.

This turn away from him, shown by recent polling, gives additional openings for worker advocates to return a pro-worker majority to Congress come November.

An NBC poll from last month reported a drop of 8 points among respondents “strongly” favoring the chief executive, down from a high of 78% in April. Such a support loss is significant considering the chief executive’s narrow margin of victory in 2024.  The same poll showed the percentage of “MAGA” Republicans has dropped from 57% in April to 50% last month.

The data shows voters increasingly disapprove of his handling of the economy, with just 26% believing Trump is doing a good job. The New York Times reported that as of January 2,  Trump’s disapproval rating was at 54%, compared with approval of 42%. Also, a majority of Americans, including one-third of Republicans,  now hold Trump more responsible than Biden for the economy.

Trump has also seen faltering numbers within his own party: only 75% of Republicans approved of his handling of the economy in November, down from 82% in July, according to Marquette University polling; and his approval rating among white, college-educated men dropped to 40% from 47% in June according to Fox News polling.  

The president has experienced several notable breaks with his MAGA base in recent months. Despite his resistance, the House approved legislation last month requiring the Justice Department to release documents detailing its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. Trump endorsed the bill after it won enough Republican support to pass, however, his Department of Justice has still reportedly failed to produce some million additional pages.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that leaders of the Republican “MAGA” wing, alienated by his obliviousness to the cost of living, are “checking out” on Trump. In effect, it reports that Trump has reneged on the most important promises he made to win MAGA votes, including halting cost of living and inflation increases, as well as his prioritizing of international affairs.

A recent Economist/YouGov poll (Nov. 28-Dec. 1) found Trump had a 38% approval rating and 57% disapproval rating, the seventh week in succession that his rating was a -15% or lower. He ends the year with 39% approval and 56% disapproval ratings in this poll, a downward trend since the start of his second term: 51% of respondents said the economy is getting worse.

Under a November poll by NPR/PBS/Marist, Democrats have an advantage headed into next year’s midterms, with 55% saying they were more likely to vote Democratic, compared to 41% saying they would vote Republican. 

Potentially more ominous for the administration, polls reflect disillusionment with the chief executive among some groups whose support was key to his victory.  Specifically, Hispanic and Latinx voters are reconsidering their choices, according to media interviews. This offers an answer to the question whether the favorable swing of these voters was a permanent or momentary realignment.

Pew Research Center polling reflects this change. Latinos have grown pessimistic since the 2024 presidential election. Most say their situation has worsened, and as Trump’s second term unfolds, Latinos are increasingly critical of his job performance and immigration/economic policies – key issues for Latino voters.

In a striking result, some 55% of Latinos feel “very strongly” that Trump has done a bad job as president, contrasted with 18% who feel “very strongly” the opposite. The same polling finds pessimism has spiked among Latinos. 68% of Hispanic adults say the situation in the U.S. is worse for Hispanics today than a year ago, the first time in the poll’s two-decade history that a majority said their situation deteriorated. 61% of U.S. Latinos said Trump’s policies worsened the economy, while roughly one-third struggled to pay for groceries, medical care, and housing.

Blunders committed in acting on policy fronts may help explain the rising disillusionment. As one example, the demolition of the White House East Wing, has been met with disapproval from a broad spectrum of voters in polls. Trump building a $400 million dollar gilded “ballroom” while increasing numbers of Americans have trouble feeding and housing their families cannot have assuaged voters’ economic disappointment.

The recent, and apparently misdirected, military strike in Nigeria, ostensibly to help Christian residents but landing in an overwhelmingly Muslim province, appears to be an attempt at shoring up failing support among fundamentalist Christians, and may betray concern among advisers about softening of support from this element of their base.  

The plethora of actions aimed at institutionalizing the racist and white supremacist attitudes of Trump and his key advisers, including Stephen Miller, may also offer a basis for worker advocates to energize other minority group members. Indeed, while polling shows support for the administration’s efforts to tighten the southern border, it also reflects negativity towards the efforts to remove immigrants generally. The New York Times reported in November that most Americans favor reforming the legal immigration process instead. Decisions to halt visiting rights and immigration application processing for nearly forty (largely Black or brown) nations can hardly comfort Americans with relatives there. This is particularly striking when contrasted with the widely publicized policy granting accelerated immigration processing to (white) South Africans.  

It is too soon to know the American public’s view of the latest international-law-breaking gambit: the raid to have U.S. troops apprehend Venezuela’s president, after conferring with U.S. oil companies. But, the often-stated goal of seeing these corporations take over oil production can hardly be expected to mollify Trump voters annoyed with his prioritization of international matters.

In sum, a worker advocate campaign strategy emphasizing the administration’s failure to address the crowning themes of improving economic conditions and immigration control should resonate with a wide range of voters come November. Careful attention to the specific issues most important in individual districts, combined with the general economic pain theme, offers promise of change that will make a difference for the workers on whom the economy truly depends.

Written By Paul Merry, SU4W Board Member